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最后一个站着的人

伦敦—现代地缘政治的许多内容都符合《权力的游戏》的情节,许多国家饱受政治和经济压力,唯一的希望是对手比自己先崩溃。因此,它们的政府一面紧紧抓住权力,一面利用对手的内部弱点。

俄罗斯总统普京就是非常好的例子。它最近在叙利亚乌克兰的动作看起来就像是地缘政治海盗。但其冒险主义的根源在于国内弱势。比如,俄罗斯吞并克里米亚很大程度上是为了给普京政权提供新的合法性。此前,俄罗斯经历了一个不满的冬天,示威者走上街头反对普京回归总统宝座。

敌对势力——主要是美国和欧盟——对俄罗斯实施了制裁,希望以此扩大俄罗斯精英阶层的裂缝,这是在利用普京尚未让俄罗斯经济摆脱石油和天然气依赖实现多元化的事实。反过来,普京希望俄罗斯经济能撑到乌克兰率先崩溃。为了加速这一过程,克里姆林宫可谓无所不用其极:它发动军事入侵,操纵乌克兰政坛,进行能源勒索,并参与信息战。

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