North Cape

Cuatro riesgos geopolíticos para la economía global

CAMBRIDGE – El cierre del año es un buen momento para considerar los riesgos que nos aguardan. Existen, por supuesto, riesgos económicos importantes entre los que se cuentan la fijación incorrecta de precios causada por una década de tasas de interés ultrabajas, los desplazamientos en la demanda provocados por el cambio en la estructura de la economía china y la persistente debilidad de las economías europeas. Pero los principales riesgos a largo plazo son geopolíticos y provienen de cuatro fuentes: Rusia, China, Oriente Medio y el ciberespacio.

Aunque la Unión Soviética ya no existe, Rusia continúa siendo una formidable potencia nuclear, con capacidad para proyectar su poderío hacia cualquier parte del mundo. Por otra parte, Rusia es económicamente débil por su dependencia de los ingresos provenientes del petróleo en tiempos en que sus precios han caído dramáticamente. Su presidente, Vladimir Putin, ya advirtió a los rusos que habrá austeridad ya que el gobierno será incapaz de ofrecer los beneficios por transferencias que proporcionó en los últimos años.

El riesgo geopolítico proviene de la creciente dependencia de Putin de la acción militar en el extranjero —en Ucrania y ahora en Siria— para mantener su popularidad interna haciendo uso de los medios locales de difusión (casi completamente bajo control del Kremlin) para ensalzar la importancia mundial de Rusia. Rusia también usa sus exportaciones de gas a Europa Occidental y Turquía como arma económica, aunque la reciente decisión turca de comprar gas a Israel pone de relieve los límites de esta estrategia. Mientras Putin responde a este y otros desafíos, Rusia continuará siendo una fuente de incertidumbre significativa para el resto del mundo.

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