North Cape

全球经济面临四大地缘政治风险

坎布里奇—年底是考察未来风险的好时候。重要的经济风险固然存在,包括十年来的极低利率所导致的资产定价错误、中国经济结构改变所导致的需求变化以及欧洲经济体的持续萎靡。但主要的长期风险是地缘政治风险,主要来自四个方面:俄罗斯、中国、中东和网络空间。

苏联已不复存在,但俄罗斯仍是可怕的核力量,并且具备在世界任何一个地方动武的能力。俄罗斯在经济上也十分疲软,因为它依赖石油收入,而石油价格出现了暴跌。俄罗斯总统普京已经警告俄罗斯人,他们需要面临紧缩,因为政府已无力提供最近几年所提供的转移支付福利。

地缘政治风险来自普金越来越依靠对外动武——在乌克兰和现在的叙利亚——保持国内支持度,用国内媒体(现在几乎完全由克里姆林宫掌控)吹捧俄罗斯的全球重要性。俄罗斯还将其对西欧和土耳其的天然气出口作为经济武器,尽管土耳其最近决定从以色列输入天然气,说明俄罗斯的这一战略存在局限性。只要普京需要应对这些挑战,俄罗斯就会对世界其他地区带来重大不确定性。

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