«Китайская мечта» или дурной сон?

ЛОНДОН – С момента своего первого выступления в качестве председателя КНР Си Цзиньпин отстаивает так называемую «китайскую мечту» о национальном обновлении и индивидуальном самоусовершенствовании. Но необходимость решения проблемы беспрецедентного долга, который накопил Китай в последние годы, становится испытанием для решимости Си – а его правительство закрывает на эту проблему глаза.

Сомнительно, чтобы китайское правительство могло – или хотело – обуздать долг, что очевидно по его противоречивому обязательству провести крупные структурные реформы, в то же время поддерживая рост ВВП на уровне 7,5% в год. С учетом того, что своим нынешним уровнем роста Китай во многом обязан финансируемым за счет долга инвестициям, – зачастую в такие проекты, как инфраструктура и жилищное строительство, предназначенные для поддержания «китайской мечты», – любая попытка взять под контроль рост задолженности, скорее всего, приведет к сложным последствиям. Эта перспектива уже подталкивает власти к отсрочке важнейших реформ.

По правде говоря, отношение долга Китая к его ВВП, достигшее в этом месяце 250%, остается значительно меньше, чем у большинства развитых стран. Проблема в том, что такой объем частных кредитов обычно наблюдается в странах, где ВВП на душу населения составляет около 25 000 долларов – почти в четыре раза больше, чем нынешний уровень в стране.

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