Бразилия всплывает «брюхом кверху»?

САН-ПАУЛУ – После нескольких лет впечатляющего роста экономические перспективы Бразилии становятся все более туманными. С тех пор как в июле закончился Чемпионат мира, экономическая активность упала, инфляционное давление усилилось, а потребительская и деловая уверенность обрушились, заставив многих экономистов урезать свои прогнозы роста на этот год. Итак, насколько же больна экономика Бразилии и как ее болезнь повлияет на исход президентских выборов в октябре?

На первый взгляд, слабый рост Бразилии представляется эфемерным, и у президента Дилмы Руссефф хорошая позиция для выхода на второй срок. За последние 12 лет ее Рабочая партия (PT) принесла стране сильнейший рост ВВП на душу населенияза последние три десятилетия; сократила неравенство доходов при помощи обширной системы социальных трансферов, которая распространилась на одну треть всех домовладельцев Бразилии; и она сократила официальный уровень безработицы до рекордно низкого уровня в 4,5%.

Однако даже беглый взгляд на последние экономические данные показывает, что модель роста Бразилии также может разбиться о стагфляционную стену. Действительно, Бразилия, скорее всего, испытала техническую рецессию в первой половине этого года. А ежегодный прирост за время президентства Руссефф, вероятно, в среднем составил менее 2% ‑ самый медленный рост в течение президентского срока в Бразилии начиная с 1980 года, когда страна начала переход от гиперинфляции и постоянных неплатежей к стабильной и более процветающей экономике со средним уровнем доходов.

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