Les canards boiteux et les gazelles du nouvel ordre économique

MUNICH – La pire crise financière de l'après-guerre est terminée. Elle a éclaté brusquement en 2008 pour disparaître quelques 18 mois après, aussi rapidement qu'elle était venue. Les plans de sauvetage des banques pour un montant de 5000 milliards de dollars et les programmes de relance keynésiens pour quelques 1000 milliards de plus ont évité l'effondrement du système financier. Après une baisse de 0,6% en 2009, d'après le FMI le PIB mondial devrait croître de 4,6% cette année et de 4,3% l'année prochaine - un taux supérieur au taux de croissance moyen des 30 dernières années.

En Europe la crise de la dette n'est pas terminée et le calme actuel ne suffit pas à rassurer entièrement les marchés. La prime de risque que doivent payer les pays en difficulté financière doit rester élevée pour marquer la persistance du risque. 

Si on fait la comparaison avec l'Allemagne, le 20 août les primes des taux d'intérêt sur les obligations d'Etat à 10 ans était de 8,6%, un taux supérieur à ce qu'il était fin avril quand la Grèce est devenue pratiquement insolvable et que l'UE a préparé des mesures de sauvetage. Les spreads de crédit de l'Irlande et du Portugal se sont aussi creusés, bien que fin juillet le plan de secours géant de 920 milliards d'euros élaboré par l'UE, les pays de la zone euro, le FMI et la Banque centrale européenne ait semble-t-il apaisé quelque peu les marchés.

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