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Cinq raisons pour lesquelles le ciel ne nous tombe pas sur la tête

BUDAPEST – En matière de géopolitique, le pessimisme fait toujours recette. Ce thème connaît d'ailleurs un fort renouveau ces derniers temps : The Economist, Foreign Affairs et de nombreuses revues moins exaltées proclament aux quatre vents que l'ordre mondial est en train de s'effondrer, que la capacité (et la volonté) des États-Unis de le préserver est à l'agonie et que la perspective d'éviter un conflit mondial majeur dans les dix années à venir est illusoire.

De nombreux événements récents, dont les fantômes de 1914 et 1939, font les choux gras des prophètes de malheur d'aujourd'hui. Il y a l'aventurisme de la Russie en Ukraine, les prétentions territoriales de la Chine et le retour du nationalisme au Japon en Extrême-Orient. La catastrophe continue en Syrie et le désarroi s'étend autour du Moyen-Orient. La résurgence des atrocités au Soudan du Sud, au Nigéria et ailleurs en Afrique. Et l'anxiété à propos du renouveau de la lutte communautaire en Inde après l'éclatante victoire électorale du nationaliste hindou Narendra Modi.

Mais même si les conditions politiques mondiales sont loin d'être idéales (elles ne le sont jamais) il existe de nombreuses raisons de croire qu'elles ne sont pas aussi mauvaises que le prétendent certains. Voici cinq raisons principales de ne pas perdre le sommeil, contrairement à ce que certains experts voudraient vous faire croire.

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