David Kingham/Flickr

天塌不下来的五大理由

布达佩斯—在地缘政治问题上,悲观论永远不缺乏市场。最近,这方面的业务相当火爆,《经济学人》(Economist)、《外交》(Foreign Affairs)以及许多其他知名度稍差的期刊大谈全球秩序的崩溃、美国拯救这一局面的能力(和意愿)正在永久性地衰退,以及未来十年难免会爆发重大冲突。

大量最新事件——以及1914年和1939年的幽灵——让今天的末日论者大行其道,名利双收。俄罗斯吞并了克里米亚;东亚有中国的领土主张和日本民族主义的还魂;叙利亚灾难继续发酵,大中东也是一片混乱;南苏丹、尼日利亚和非洲其他地区暴力犯罪死灰复燃;还有对印度教民族主义者纳兰德拉·莫迪在印度大选中大获全胜可能重新引起公共冲突的担忧。

但是,尽管全球政治条件没有达到其可以达到的美好程度——从来都是这样——但也有充分的理由认为它们并不像许多人宣称的那样糟糕。五个重要理由表明,完全不用像一些专家所说的那样忧心忡忡。

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