安倍的亚洲开局

堪培拉—世界产生的历史太多,我们消费历史的能力太小,因此,我们很容易忽视一些近期局势发展,它们给长期和平与稳定带来的后果可能比最近在东乌克兰、加沙和叙利亚-伊拉克所发生的紧急事件更加严重。与伊朗的核谈判的结果、三大民主国家之二——印度和印尼领导人交接,以及由主要非西方国家组成金砖国家集团(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非)重装上阵都有可能成为这类局面改变事件。

但首相安倍晋三领导日本在国际舞台上耀武扬威可能会带来更加重大的后果。除非各方(包括美国和日本的其他亚太地区紧密盟友)小心处置,否则安倍的日本外交政策大变脸可能破坏到目前为止控制着中美对抗的脆弱实力平衡。

日本对中国新出现的地区强势表示担忧是正确的,而安倍最近的外交举动——强化日本与东南亚、澳大利亚和印度的关系——也不难理解。也不能说安倍政府重新解释日本“和平宪法”第九条、允许日本参与集体自卫行动并与盟友和伙伴开战军事合作的举动是毫无道理的——尽管国内外反对声音很大。

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