L’illusion nucléaire de l’Ukraine

GENÈVE – Un argument très répandu de nos jours voudrait que l’Ukraine ne connaisse pas les difficultés qu’elle vit actuellement si elle avait conservé son arsenal important d’armes nucléaires à la fin de la guerre froide. Cette affirmation a des conséquences politiques dangereuses et ne doit pas rester incontestée.

Même si, en surface, l’argument reste plausible, il ne résiste pas à l’examen des faits dont nous disposons sur la façon dont les États se comportent. Les armes nucléaires n’ont tout simplement pas les effets dissuasifs que le commun des mortels lui attribue, que le contexte soit d’empêcher la guerre entre deux grandes puissances nucléaires ou de protéger les États plus faibles contre les attaques conventionnelles.

La théorie veut que l’équilibre de la terreur nucléaire entre les États-Unis soit ce qui aurait maintenu la paix tout au long de la guerre froide, et aurait ainsi joué un rôle important pour refroidir les ardeurs d’autres belligérants éventuels (notamment entre l’Inde et le Pakistan, l’Inde et la Chine ainsi qu’entre les États-Unis et la Chine). Cette théorie n’est toutefois pas aussi fondée qu’elle paraît. Dans toute la période de la guerre froide, aucun événement ne peut venir confirmer l’hypothèse que l’Union soviétique ou les États-Unis auraient été empêchés d’intervenir militairement par crainte de l’arsenal nucléaire de l’autre camp.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/z7LUeVX/fr;
  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now