Kazuhiro Nogi/Stringer

Una agenda sobre la deuda para el G7

CAMBRIDGE – El 26 y 27 de mayo los Jefes de Estado del Grupo de los Siete principales países industriales se reunirán en Japón para conversar sobre problemas económicos y de seguridad comunes. Un importante problema común que merece su atención es el aumento insostenible de la deuda nacional de los principales países desarrollados. No abordar la explosión del endeudamiento gubernamental tendrá efectos adversos que afecten a la economía mundial y a los propios países agobiados por la deuda.

El problema es grave y cada vez empeora más, casi en todas partes. En Estados Unidos, la Oficina de Presupuesto del Congreso de la Nación estima que la deuda del gobierno federal se duplicó durante la última década, ya que aumentó desde el 36% del PIB al 74% del PIB. También predice que, en un escenario con supuestos económicos favorables y sin nuevos programas para aumentar el gasto o reducir los ingresos, el ratio de deuda a diez años a partir de ahora se situará en un nivel del 86% del PIB. Los que es aún más preocupante: el ratio de déficit anual se duplicará en la próxima década alcanzando un 4,9% del PIB, lo que pondrá a la deuda en camino de superar el 100% del PIB.

La situación en Japón es aún peor, ya que la deuda bruta de este país supera el 200% del PIB. El actual déficit anual de Japón del 6% del PIB implica que el ratio de deuda seguirá aumentando rápidamente, a menos que se tomen medidas.

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