Skip to main content

johnson109_Lucas-SchifresGetty-Images_china-development Lucas Schifres/Getty Images

经济趋同的未来

华盛顿—现在,谁可以保持高速经济增长?这个问题的答案不但将决定未来几十年哪些地域能够繁荣,还将决定2030或2050年全球经济活动的平衡情况。目前,越来越清楚的是这一平衡将会局部远离美国及其二战后盟国,转向新的潜在经济超级大国中国和印度。但这一转变未必会改变世界的运转方式。

理论上,经济增长——生产率的不断提升——可能显得比较简单。一个经济体的生产率,或人均产出,是由资本存量、劳动力(工人数量和他们受教育的程度),以及一个相当模糊的残差所决定。这个残差又叫“全要素生产率”,它是指资本和劳动的组织方式。现代经济增长(始于十八世纪末)背后的基本概念是它涉及到构建实体资本(建筑、机器和基础设施)、提升教育水平,以及合理结合“生产要素”以提高生产率。科技创新,不管来自国内还是从外部输入,通常会有所帮助。

这里不存在什么重大机密。各国以这种方式增长了两百多年。你可以根据你的自然资源(如充足的煤炭或靠海的位置)制定增长战略。你可以依靠更强的政府角色(如新加坡),或主要依靠私人部门(如香港地区)实现增长。

We hope you're enjoying Project Syndicate.

To continue reading, subscribe now.

Subscribe

Get unlimited access to PS premium content, including in-depth commentaries, book reviews, exclusive interviews, On Point, the Big Picture, the PS Archive, and our annual year-ahead magazine.

https://prosyn.org/k41Nvd0/zh;
  1. bildt69_DELIL SOULEIMANAFP via Getty Images_syriansoldiermissilegun Delil Souleiman/AFP/Getty Images

    Time to Bite the Bullet in Syria

    Carl Bildt

    US President Donald Trump's impulsive decision to pull American troops out of northern Syria and allow Turkey to launch a military campaign against the Kurds there has proved utterly disastrous. But a crisis was already inevitable, given the realities on the ground and the absence of a coherent US or Western policy in Syria.

    8

Cookies and Privacy

We use cookies to improve your experience on our website. To find out more, read our updated Cookie policy, Privacy policy and Terms & Conditions