Skip to main content

Cookies and Privacy

We use cookies to improve your experience on our website. To find out more, read our updated Cookie policy, Privacy policy and Terms & Conditions

johnson109_Lucas-SchifresGetty-Images_china-development Lucas Schifres/Getty Images

经济趋同的未来

华盛顿—现在,谁可以保持高速经济增长?这个问题的答案不但将决定未来几十年哪些地域能够繁荣,还将决定2030或2050年全球经济活动的平衡情况。目前,越来越清楚的是这一平衡将会局部远离美国及其二战后盟国,转向新的潜在经济超级大国中国和印度。但这一转变未必会改变世界的运转方式。

理论上,经济增长——生产率的不断提升——可能显得比较简单。一个经济体的生产率,或人均产出,是由资本存量、劳动力(工人数量和他们受教育的程度),以及一个相当模糊的残差所决定。这个残差又叫“全要素生产率”,它是指资本和劳动的组织方式。现代经济增长(始于十八世纪末)背后的基本概念是它涉及到构建实体资本(建筑、机器和基础设施)、提升教育水平,以及合理结合“生产要素”以提高生产率。科技创新,不管来自国内还是从外部输入,通常会有所帮助。

这里不存在什么重大机密。各国以这种方式增长了两百多年。你可以根据你的自然资源(如充足的煤炭或靠海的位置)制定增长战略。你可以依靠更强的政府角色(如新加坡),或主要依靠私人部门(如香港地区)实现增长。

We hope you're enjoying Project Syndicate.

To continue reading, subscribe now.

Subscribe

Get unlimited access to PS premium content, including in-depth commentaries, book reviews, exclusive interviews, On Point, the Big Picture, the PS Archive, and our annual year-ahead magazine.

https://prosyn.org/k41Nvd0zh;
  1. pei56_Miguel CandelaSOPA ImagesLightRocket via Getty Images_xijinpinghongkongprotestmasks Miguel Candela/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

    China’s Risky Endgame in Hong Kong

    Minxin Pei

    In 2017, Chinese President Xi Jinping declared that by the time the People’s Republic celebrates its centenary in 2049, it should be a “great modern socialist country” with an advanced economy. But following through with planned measures to tighten mainland China's grip on Hong Kong would make achieving that goal all but impossible.

    2