Il tracollo di Fukushima ed il crollo dei derivati

CAMBRIDGE – Gli esperti finanziari hanno paragonato il terremoto, lo tsunami e la catastrofe nucleare del Giappone al ruolo dei derivati nel tracollo finanziario del 2008. Le somiglianze sono abbastanza evidenti, in quanto ogni attività presenta enormi benefici ma con un lieve margine di rischio esplosivo. Tuttavia il paragone tra le due tipologie di crisi viene meno rispetto al piano di prevenzione per contrastare un’eventuale  ricomparsa dei disastri verificatisi.

Nel caso dell’impianto nucleare di Fukushima, un’inondazione che si verifica ogni 1000 anni e innocui difetti di progettazione routinari hanno causato la mancata circolazione dell’acqua di raffreddamento nei reattori, portando a serie perdite radioattive. Nei mercati finanziari, un collasso inaspettato dei titoli immobiliari ed errori di valutazione dei derivati e dei mercati repo hanno minato la capacità  di rispettare gli obblighi di pagamento da parte dei principali istituti finanziari.

Se da un lato i rischi principali sono derivati, in entrambi i casi, da fattori esterni al sistema (lo tsunami nel caso di Fukushima e sovrainvestimenti nei mutui immobiliari nel caso degli istituti finanziari), una combinazione di errori di pianificazione e sfortuna hanno fatto sì che i sistemi non fossero in grado di contenere i danni. Negli Stati Uniti, l’AIG, la Bear Stearns e la Lehman Brothers, che hanno derivati e/o investimenti repo ingenti, sono fallite congelando in modo preoccupante i mercati del credito per diverse settimane.

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