De desequilibrios globales a gobernancia global efectiva

STANFORD, CALIFORNIA – La crisis de crédito actual ha llevado a proyecciones reducidas en materia de crecimiento a nivel mundial. Los gobiernos y los bancos centrales están respondiendo a los balances averiados y a los bloqueos crediticios en un intento por limitar el perjuicio a sus economías fuera del sector financiero.

En Estados Unidos, el sector financiero está sufriendo una transformación estructural de alta velocidad pero permanente, cuyos efectos podrían ser severos para el crecimiento económico de los países en desarrollo. De hecho, estos países ya están experimentando grandes incrementos de precios relativos de los alimentos y el petróleo, una emergencia alimenticia para los pobres y mayores tasas de inflación provocadas por las oscilaciones en los precios de las materias primas. Si bien el crecimiento rápido en los países en desarrollo ha sido un factor importante en los crecientes precios de las materias primas, gran parte de todo esto está fuera de su control.

Durante los últimos dos años, mis colegas y yo en la Comisión de Crecimiento nos avocamos a entender cómo 13 países en desarrollo lograban registrar tasas de crecimiento que promediaban el 7% o más durante 25 años o más tiempo. En El informe de crecimiento , publicado en mayo, intentamos entender por qué la mayoría de los países en desarrollo no alcanzaban este resultado y exploramos de qué manera podrían emular a aquellos países que crecían a ritmo acelerado.

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