L’expérimentation d’un octroi de liquidités ultra-facilité

BÂLE – Les différentes banques centrales de la planète procèdent actuellement à l’une des plus importantes expérimentations de l’histoire moderne en matière de politiques : l’accès ultra-facilité aux liquidités. Et à mesure que s’opère cette expérimentation, le risque d’échec – ainsi que la menace de rectifications dévastatrices et de dislocations économiques profondes qui s’ensuivraient – s’accentue lui aussi.

Dans le sillage de la crise qui a débuté en 2007, les taux directeurs ont été abaissés jusqu’à des niveaux sans précédent, toujours en vigueur aujourd’hui, et des mesures ont été prises pour réduire également les taux à plus long terme. Aucune démarche de ce type n’avait auparavant été entreprise à l’échelle mondiale, pas même au plus fort de la Grande Dépression. De plus, les bilans de nombreuses banques centrales se sont développés jusqu’à des niveaux records, dans des mesures certes différentes, pour diverses raisons – soulignant encore davantage le caractère expérimental de l’assouplissement monétaire aujourd’hui mis en œuvre.

Les risques soulevés par de telles politiques nécessitent un examen attentif, d’autant plus que cette expérimentation actuelle semble marquer le franchissement d’une étape supplémentaire sur un chemin bien connu – ce chemin qui a en premier lieu conduit à la crise.

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