美国所面临的中国麻烦

华盛顿——1980年5月,中国新任主席习近平首次访美。他当时是陪同耿飚访美的一名27岁的下级军官,之后曾历任副总理和军方高级职务。我曾是美国访华的首位国防部长,在以吉米·卡特政府特使身份访问中国时,耿飚恰好负责我的接待工作。

美国人当时几乎没有理由关注习近平,但他的上司显然看到了他的潜力。之后的32年随着中国经济和军事实力的增强,习的地位也不断提升。他和团队登上权力巅峰标志着由邓小平指定的上一代领导正式退休(尽管他们在退休后仍有影响力)。

尽管中国在世界事务中拥有更多话语权,但习不得不面对致使中国比一般人认识中更加脆弱的内部压力。中国出口导向的经济模式已经达到极限,而向内需拉动型增长的过渡正在激化内部摩擦。随着城市化快速发展、经济改革和社会变化在这个13亿人口的国家掀起轩然大波,依靠镇压手段管理骚乱比之前难度更大。边远地区的民族冲突也将考验习近平的政治控制力。

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