France : le troisième homme

La campagne présidentielle français actuelle doit-elle nous inspirer de l’admiration ou de l’inquiétude ? Peut-être un peu des deux ! Il ne fait aucun doute que c’est du grand spectacle, avec tous les ingrédients d’un succès hollywoodien, dont un rebondissement étonnant : l’émergence d’un troisième homme, François Bayrou.

Même si sa victoire est improbable, Bayrou doit aujourd’hui être pris au sérieux. Tout d’abord, il a trouvé en Ségolène Royal et Nicolas Sarkozy de remarquables portes-paroles pour sa candidature. Plus Royal se réfère aux « thèmes classiques » du parti socialiste, et plus Sarkozy courtise ouvertement l’extrême droite, plus la popularité de Bayrou augmente. En fait, les doutes persistants des Français concernant les compétences de Royal et la personnalité de Sarkozy sont la principale raison de l’ascension fulgurante de Bayrou dans les sondages. De 7 pour cent d’intentions de vote au début de sa campagne, il est passé à 22 pour cent aujourd’hui.

La deuxième raison à l’origine de sa progression spectaculaire a moins à voir avec les personnes et plus à voir avec l’humeur nationale de la France. La même raison qui a poussé une majorité de Français à rejeter le projet de constitution de l’Union européenne lors d’un référendum en mai 2005 pourrait les amener à voter pour Bayrou, le candidat le plus proeuropéen de tous.

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