Alain Juppe Jean-Philippe Ksiazek/Getty Images

Frankreichs nächster Präsident

PARIS – In etwas mehr als einem Jahr wählen die Franzosen ihren neuen Präsidenten. Natürlich ist es viel zu früh, um Vorhersagen zu treffen. Wenn „eine Woche in der Politik eine lange Zeit“ ist, wie es der ehemalige britische Premierminister Harold Wilson gesagt haben soll, dann ist ein Jahr eine Ewigkeit. Und trotzdem sollten wir angesichts der enormen Auswirkungen des Wahlergebnisses auf Frankreich und Europa eine erste Einschätzung wagen.

Schenkt man den Meinungsumfragen Glauben, wird der nächste französische Präsident nicht François Hollande oder Nicolas Sarkozy sein, also keiner der letzten beiden Präsidenten. Hollande ist der Amtsinhaber, aber seine Leistung war an fast allen Fronten enttäuschend, insbesondere beim Versuch, die Arbeitslosigkeit zu verringern. Sarkozys Chancen leiden unter seinem unangenehmen Charakter.

In der Fünften Republik ist der französische Präsident, britisch ausgedrückt, sowohl Monarch als auch Premierminister. Er hat ebenso symbolische wie reale Macht. Sarkozy ist in erster Linie daran gescheitert, die Republik mit Würde zu vertreten, und Hollande hat sowohl bei der Vertretung als auch im Handeln versagt. Um es unverblümt auszudrücken: Ein Mann, der einfach „zu viel“ war, wurde durch einen anderen abgelöst, der „nicht genug“ war. Unter diesem Tandem wurden dringend erforderliche Strukturreformen entweder gar nicht angegangen, oder erst dann durchgeführt, als es zu spät war.

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