Chris Van Es

Construire l’opposition syrienne

TEL AVIV – La crise syrienne, qui a débuté voilà un an et fait près de 10.000 victimes, principalement civiles, ne semble pas sur le point de se terminer. Le pays est dans l’impasseamp#160;: l’opposition ne parvient pas à renverser le régime du président Bachar el-Assad et les forces armées du régime ne parviennent pas à écraser la résistance.

Chacune des parties campe sur ses positionsamp#160;: l’opposition est déterminée à chasser du pouvoir un régime qu’elle juge corrompu, illégitime, sectaire, tyrannique et sanguinaire, tandis que les faucons du régime pensent qu’en persévérant dans la voie actuelle, ils parviendront à faire taire l’opposition et que toute concession compromettrait leur existence même. La chute du régime, pensent-ils, signifierait l’éviction et la mort des dirigeants du régime et d’une grande partie de la minorité alaouite dont ils sont issus.

Assad et ses affidés, encouragés dans cette voie par l’incapacité de la communauté internationale à réagir efficacement à la répression brutale de la révolte populaire à Homs, ont entrepris de punir brutalement les survivants comme avertissement à l’attention des autres bastions de la contestation. Cette stratégie pourrait intimider une partie de la population syrienne à court terme, mais en finale, elle ne fera qu’exacerber la colère populaire et augmenter la probabilité d’un règlement sanglant des comptes avec Assad et ses partisans.

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