American dollar cut into shape of the United States

De quem era, afinal, o AQ?

CAMBRIDGE – Entre 1913 (quando a Reserva Federal dos Estados Unidos foi fundada) e o final da década de 1980, seria justo dizer que a Fed era a única saída quando o assunto era compras de títulos do Tesouro dos EUA por bancos centrais. Durante essa época, a Fed era proprietária de cerca de 12% a 30% dos títulos do Tesouro negociáveis (ver figura), com o pico do pós-Segunda Guerra Mundial no horizonte à medida que a Fed tentava sustentar a queda da economia dos EUA após a primeira subida em flecha dos preços do petróleo, em 1973.

Já não vivemos nesse mundo centrado nos EUA, onde a Fed era a única saída e as mudanças na sua política monetária influenciaram fortemente as condições de liquidez internas e, em grande medida, a nível mundial. Anos antes da crise financeira global - e antes de o termo “AQ” (alívio quantitativo) se tornar um elemento fixo do léxico financeiro - os proprietários de títulos do Tesouro dos EUA dos bancos centrais estrangeiros começaram a alcançar e depois a dominar a parte da Fed.

A compra de títulos do Tesouro dos EUA por bancos centrais estrangeiros começou realmente a ter sucesso em 2003, anos antes de a primeira ronda de alívio quantitativo, ou “AQ1”, ser lançada no final de 2008. Os bancos centrais estrangeiros estavam a cargo do Banco Popular da China - vamos chamá-lo de “AQ0”. Em 2006 (no pico da bolha imobiliária dos EUA), instituições oficiais estrangeiras detinham cerca de um terço do stock de títulos do Tesouro dos EUA disponíveis, cerca de duas vezes a quantidade detida pela Fed. Na véspera do AQ1 da Fed, essa parcela situou-se nos cerca dos 40%.

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