¿Por quién doblan las campanas de América?

En estos días, al Presidente del Consejo de Asesores Económicos del Presidente Bush, Ben Bernanke, le gusta hablar de una “superabundancia mundial de ahorro” que ha producido unos tipos de interés reales asombrosamente bajos en todo el mundo, pero ésa no es la forma adecuada de considerarlo.

Los Estados Unidos no tienen precisamente una superabundancia de ahorro. Su tasa de ahorro ha sido alarmantemente baja durante decenios. Después la temeraria política fiscal del gobierno de Bush la ha reducido. La bajada de los tipos de interés en los últimos años ha hecho subir los precios de los bienes inmuebles y ha permitido a la clase media alta estadounidense tratar sus casas como enormes cajeros automáticos, lo que ha reducido los ahorros aún más. Los Estados Unidos tienen una deficiencia en materia de ahorro, no una superabundancia.

¿Y el resto del mundo? Una superabundancia de ahorro mundial indicaría que el reequilibrio de la economía mundial requiere políticas que fomenten la tasa de ahorro de los Estados Unidos y aumenten el consumo de los hogares de fuera de los Estados Unidos, pero lo que la economía mundial afronta no es una superabundancia de ahorro, sino una deficiencia en materia de inversión.

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