美国的警钟为谁而鸣

近一段时间,布什总统经济顾问委员会主席Ben Bernanke总是把“全球储蓄过剩”挂在嘴边,说这一现象造成了全球范围出奇之低的实际利率。但这种看法并不正确。

美国当然不存在储蓄过剩。它的储蓄率数十年来都低得令人沮丧。而布什政府不计后果的财政政策又将其压得更低。近几年不断下滑的利率推高了不动产价格,从而让美国的中上阶层能够将自己的房产当作巨型的“自动提款机”,并使储蓄率进一步降低。美国存在着储蓄不足的情况,而不是储蓄过剩。

那么世界其他地方的情况又如何呢?一种全球性的储蓄过剩意味着要重新平衡世界经济就必须制定政策提高美国的储蓄率并增加非美国家庭的消费。但世界经济所面临的并不是储蓄过剩,而是投资不足。

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