被忽视的增长乘数

普林斯顿—2010年4月,当全球经济开始从2008—2009年金融危机的冲击中复苏时,IMF的《世界经济展望》预测2010年全球GDP增长将超4%,并维持4.5%的年增长直到2015年。但该预测显然是太过乐观了。

事实上,全球增长出现了减速。在最新的《世界经济展望》中,IMF预测2012年全球GDP增长将仅为3.3%,2013年为3.6%。此外,增长前景的恶化之势在极快地蔓延。

预测误差的潜在原因有三:对金融危机后经济复苏所需时间的误判;对“财政乘数”(因财政紧缩导致的产出损失)的低估;以及对“世界贸易乘数”(随着经济收缩各国互拖后腿的倾向)的忽视。

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