Paul Lachine

Das richtige Loch stopfen

LONDON – Die „Gesetze der Löcher“ sind ebenso gnadenlos wie die Gesetze der Physik. Wenn Sie sich in einem Loch befinden und heraus möchten, müssen Sie zunächst aufhören, zu graben. Wenn Sie es mit mehreren Löchern zu tun haben, die es zu stopfen gilt, wenden Sie sich zuerst jenem zu, das die größte Gefahr darstellt. Diese Gesetze gelten insbesondere für Staatsfinanzen.   

Als John Maynard Keynes von dauerhafter Unterbeschäftigung sprach, meinte er damit nicht, dass die Ökonomien nach einem großen Schock auf einem unveränderlichen Niveau gedämpfter Aktivität stagnieren. Vielmehr glaubte er, dass die Erholung nach dem Tiefpunkt ohne externe Anreize langsam, unsicher, schwach und rückfallgefährdet verlaufen würde.  Sein „Gleichgewicht bei Unterbeschäftigung“ ist eher wie eine Art Schwerkraft und weniger als ein unabänderlicher Zustand zu sehen.

Diese Situation beschrieb der ehemalige Chef der amerikanischen Notenbank Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, als „Quasi-Rezession“ – ein treffenderer Ausdruck als „Double-Dip-Rezession“. Damit wird eine anämische Erholung mit Phasen des Enthusiasmus unterbrochen von Zusammenbrüchen bezeichnet. Genau vor dieser Situation stehen wir heute.  

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