中国的再平衡举动

发自北京——中国的“十二五”计划要求将本国的经济模式从出口带动型增长向内需型转变,尤其将重点放在居民消费方面。自该计划发布以来,中国的经常账户盈余占GDP的比例确实有所下降。但这是否表明中国的调整已经走上了正轨呢?

世界货币基金组织(IMF)的报告指出,中国经常账户盈余与GDP比率的下降在很大程度上是源自极高的投资水平,全球经济不振以及超过中国制造商品价格上涨速度的大宗货物出口价格上涨。因此,中国外部盈余与GDP比率的下降并不代表经济的“再平衡”;相反,IMF预计该比率将在2013年反弹并随后达到危机前水平。

IMF对最近中国经常账户盈余与GDP比率下降的解读大体上是正确的。经验表明,中国的外部头寸极易受到全球经济状况的影响,中国的外部盈余对GDP比率在全球经济繁荣时期就会上升,在萧条时期则下跌。欧洲经历的危机严重打击了中国出口,而这无疑是最近比率下降背后的最重要原因。

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