Good debt scrabble economy

نهج الموازنة العمومية في التعامل مع السياسة المالية

واشنطن، العاصمة ــ يبدو أن الجميع يتحدثون الآن عن الدين، فيستشهدون بأرقام اسمية ضخمة تؤثر على المناقشات الدائرة حول السياسة العامة في مختلف أنحاء العالم. ولكن ليست كل الديون متساوية.

فبادئ ذي بدء، عندما يتعلق الأمر بالدين العام، هناك فارق كبير بين الأرقام الإجمالية والصافية. ففي حين بلغ إجمالي الدين العام في اليابان على سبيل المثال 246%، وهو مستوى بالغ الضخامة، فإن الرقم الصافي الذي يمثل الديون الداخلية الحكومية لا يتجاوز 127% من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي.

وعلاوة على ذلك، فإن المسألة التي ينبغي أن تكون مهمة حقاً بشأن عبء الدين العام في أي بلد هي التكلفة السنوية المتوقعة لخدمة هذا الدين (سداد أقساطه). وكما أشار دانييل جروس مؤخرا، فإن الدين الذي يمكن ترحيله إلى أجل غير مسمى بأسعار فائدة صِفر لا يُعَد ديناً على الإطلاق. وهو مثال متطرف؛ ولكن كلما اقترب سعر الفائدة الثابت من الصِفر، وكلما أصبح موعد الاستحقاق أبعد، يتضاءل عبء رصيد الدين.

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