wave crashing into sea wall Ian Forsyth/ZumaPress

Un sistema de alerta temprana para el mundo de las finanzas

NUEVA YORK – La reciente volatilidad de los mercados – en las economías en desarrollo y emergentes por igual – está mostrando, una vez más, cuánto pueden errar las agencias de calificación y los inversores en su evaluación de las vulnerabilidades económicas y financieras de los países. Las agencias de calificación esperan demasiado para detectar riesgos y rebajar las calificaciones de los países, mientras que los inversores se comportan como rebaños, ignorando con frecuencia la acumulación de riesgos durante un período demasiado largo antes de realizar cambios de manera brusca y provocar vaivenes exagerados en el mercado.

Dada la naturaleza de la agitación del mercado, un sistema de alerta temprana para tsunamis financieros puede ser difícil de crear; pero, el mundo lo necesita hoy más que nunca. Pocas personas previeron la crisis subprime del año 2008, el riesgo de incumplimiento crediticio en la eurozona, o la turbulencia actual en los mercados financieros de todo el mundo. Los dedos acusadores señalan a políticos, bancos e instituciones supranacionales. Pero, se exonera de culpa con demasiada facilidad a los analistas y las agencias de calificación que calcularon mal la capacidad de pago de los deudores – incluyéndose entre estos a los gobiernos.

Por principio, las calificaciones crediticias se fundamentan en modelos estadísticos basados en incumplimientos crediticios en el pasado; en la práctica, sin embargo, debido a que en los hechos se han tenido pocos incumplimientos crediticios nacionales, las calificaciones soberanas a menudo son un asunto subjetivo. Los analistas de las agencias de calificación siguen los acontecimientos en el país del cual son responsables y, en caso necesario, viajan a dicho país para examinar la situación.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/UaDBLAa/es;
  1. Television sets showing a news report on Xi Jinping's speech Anthony Wallace/Getty Images

    Empowering China’s New Miracle Workers

    China’s success in the next five years will depend largely on how well the government manages the tensions underlying its complex agenda. In particular, China’s leaders will need to balance a muscular Communist Party, setting standards and protecting the public interest, with an empowered market, driving the economy into the future.

  2. United States Supreme Court Hisham Ibrahim/Getty Images

    The Sovereignty that Really Matters

    The preference of some countries to isolate themselves within their borders is anachronistic and self-defeating, but it would be a serious mistake for others, fearing contagion, to respond by imposing strict isolation. Even in states that have succumbed to reductionist discourses, much of the population has not.

  3.  The price of Euro and US dollars Daniel Leal Olivas/Getty Images

    Resurrecting Creditor Adjustment

    When the Bretton Woods Agreement was hashed out in 1944, it was agreed that countries with current-account deficits should be able to limit temporarily purchases of goods from countries running surpluses. In the ensuing 73 years, the so-called "scarce-currency clause" has been largely forgotten; but it may be time to bring it back.

  4. Leaders of the Russian Revolution in Red Square Keystone France/Getty Images

    Trump’s Republican Collaborators

    Republican leaders have a choice: they can either continue to collaborate with President Donald Trump, thereby courting disaster, or they can renounce him, finally putting their country’s democracy ahead of loyalty to their party tribe. They are hardly the first politicians to face such a decision.

  5. Angela Merkel, Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron John Thys/Getty Images

    How Money Could Unblock the Brexit Talks

    With talks on the UK's withdrawal from the EU stalled, negotiators should shift to the temporary “transition” Prime Minister Theresa May officially requested last month. Above all, the negotiators should focus immediately on the British budget contributions that will be required to make an orderly transition possible.

  6. Ksenia Sobchak Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    Is Vladimir Putin Losing His Grip?

    In recent decades, as President Vladimir Putin has entrenched his authority, Russia has seemed to be moving backward socially and economically. But while the Kremlin knows that it must reverse this trajectory, genuine reform would be incompatible with the kleptocratic character of Putin’s regime.

  7. Right-wing parties hold conference Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images

    Rage Against the Elites

    • With the advantage of hindsight, four recent books bring to bear diverse perspectives on the West’s current populist moment. 
    • Taken together, they help us to understand what that moment is and how it arrived, while reminding us that history is contingent, not inevitable


    Global Bookmark

    Distinguished thinkers review the world’s most important new books on politics, economics, and international affairs.

  8. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Bill Clark/Getty Images

    Don’t Bank on Bankruptcy for Banks

    As a part of their efforts to roll back the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, congressional Republicans have approved a measure that would have courts, rather than regulators, oversee megabank bankruptcies. It is now up to the Trump administration to decide if it wants to set the stage for a repeat of the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.