US dollar. lincolnblues/Flickr

I problemi di comunicazione della Fed

CAMBRIDGE – Niente descrive meglio l’attuale politica di comunicazione della Federal Reserve del vecchio detto che un cammello è un cavallo creato da una commissione. Diversi membri della Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) hanno definito la decisione di tenere i tassi invariati come “dipendente dai dati”. Ciò può sembrare utile fino a che non ti accorgi che ognuno di loro sembra avere una diversa interpretazione di “dipendente dai dati”, al punto che il suo significato potrebbe essere “istinto personale”.

In altre parole, la strategia di comunicazione della Fed è una grande confusione, e mettere ordine è molto più importante del momento esatto in cui il Fomc deciderà di alzare i tassi. Dopo tutto, anche dopo che la Fed ha finalmente fatto il passo da “gigante” da un tasso di interesse applicato dello 0,13% (dove si trova adesso) allo 0,25% (dove probabilmente arriverà presto), il mercato vorrà ancora sapere quale sarà la prossima strategia. E io temo che continueremo a non averne alcuna idea.

A essere precisi, decidere cosa fare è veramente difficile e gli economisti sono profondamente divisi sulla questione. Il Fondo Monetario Internazionale è intervenuto in maniera incisiva, lanciando un appello alla Fed e chiedendo di aspettare più tempo prima di alzare i tassi. E tuttavia i banchieri centrali nei mercati emergenti, che l’Fmi sta presumibilmente proteggendo, stanno mandando un messaggio ugualmente potente: continua così; l’incertezza ci uccide.

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