US Dollar.

Die Dollar-Ablenkung der Fed

CAMBRIDGE – In ihrer Grundsatzerklärung vom September hat die US-Notenbank Federal Reserve den Einfluss der weltweiten wirtschaftlichen Entwicklungen auf die Vereinigten Staaten und damit auf deren Geldpolitik deutlich berücksichtigt. In der Tat hat sich die Fed dafür entschieden, die Erhöhung der Zinsen teilweise zu verschieben, da die US-Politiker erwarten, dass ihr Inflationsziel von 2% durch die Aufwertung des Dollar und den entsprechenden Rückgang der Importpreise unterminiert wird.

In Wirklichkeit können die Währungsschwankungen in anderen Ländern zwar einen deutlichen Einfluss auf die Inflation haben, aber in den USA haben die Bewegungen des Dollar nur sehr selten einen deutlichen oder dauerhaften Effekt auf die Preise. Der Unterschied liegt natürlich in der dominanten Rolle des Dollar für die Rechnungslegung im internationalen Handel: Die Preise werden in Dollar ausgewiesen.

Ebenso wie der Dollar oft sogar die Abrechnungswährung von Kreditverträgen ist, bei denen weder Gläubiger noch Schuldner in den USA ansässig sind, beträgt der Anteil des Dollar bei der Rechnungslegung im internationalen Handel etwa das Viereinhalbfache von Amerikas Anteil an den Weltimporten und das Dreifache seines Anteil an den weltweiten Exporten. Die Preise von etwa 93% der US-Importe werden in Dollar ausgewiesen.

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