James K. Galbraith, Professor of Government and Chair in Government/Business Relations at the University of Texas at Austin, is a former staff economist for the House Banking Committee and a former executive director of the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. From 1993-97, he served as chief technical adviser for macroeconomic reform to China’s State Planning Commission. He is the author of Inequality: What Everyone Needs to Know (Oxford University Press, 2016) and Welcome to the Poisoned Chalice: The Destruction of Greece and the Future of Europe (Yale University Press, 2016).
发自科罗拉多州斯廷博特斯普林斯—美国联邦储备委员会主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)现已承诺将美国货币政策置于利率上升轨道上,这可能会使(联邦基金和国库券的)短期利率在2024年底前至少提升200个基点。至此鲍威尔已经完全屈服于经济学家和金融家的压力,复活了美联储那个曾经遵循了50年——且本应继续封存在其保险库中——的剧本。
收紧货币政策的书面理由是“对抗通货膨胀”。但是加息在短期内对通胀毫无抑制作用,从长远来看也只能通过制造另一场经济崩溃来对抗价格上涨。该政策背后是一个先将利率与货币供应量联系起来,再将货币供应量与价格水平挂钩的神秘理论。这种“货币主义”理论如今未被明说是有原因的:它在40年前促成了一场金融灾难后基本上就被废弃了。
在1970年代末,货币主义者打保票说只要美联储专注于控制货币供应量就可以在不增加失业率的同时抑制通胀。美联储主席保罗·沃尔克(Paul Volcker)在1981年尝试实践了一下该理论,结果导致短期利率飙升至20%,失业率达到10%,拉丁美洲身陷债务危机,纽约各大银行差点集体倒闭。最终美联储在1982年底撤回了这一举措。
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