Der falsche Krieg für die Notenbanken

PEKING – Mit ihrer Fixierung auf Inflationsziele in einer inflationslosen Welt sind die Notenbanken vom Weg abgekommen. Angesichts in Nullnähe verharrender Leitzinsen hat sich die Geldpolitik von einem Mittel zur Gewährleistung der Preisstabilität zu einem Motor finanzieller Instabilität verwandelt. Wir brauchen dringend einen neuen Ansatz.

Die US Federal Reserve steht exemplarisch für dieses Dilemma der Notenbankpolitik. Nachdem der Offenmarktausschuss im September beschloss, die langerwartete Normalisierung der Geldpolitik einmal mehr hinauszuschieben, werben die „Inflationstauben“ im Ausschuss nun offen für eine weitere Verzögerung.

Inflationszielfetischisten scheint ihre Argumentation unangreifbar. Der US-Gesamtverbraucherpreisindex (CPI) steht in Nullnähe, und die „Kerninflation“ – der Lieblingsindikator der Fed – liegt weiter deutlich unter dem scheinbar sakrosankten Zielwert von 2%. Und angesichts der Tatsache, dass der schon lange blutleere Aufschwung erneut gefährdet scheint, gibt es laut den „Tauben“ keinen Grund, Zinserhöhungen zu forcieren.

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