Los presupuestos de la zona del euro bajo los focos

DUBLÍN – Los mercados de bonos son famosos por su carácter caprichoso, al ir impulsados con frecuencia por el sentimiento más que por los análisis macroeconómicos rigurosos y, como demostró la crisis financiera de 2008, distan de ser infalibles. También pueden ser particularmente poco fiables al evaluar las perspectivas a largo plazo de la economía.

Aunque los tipos de interés en toda la Unión Europea están más bajos que nunca, las deudas estatales en la zona del euro podrían sufrir presiones severas, si los mercados de bonos reevaluaran el riesgo de los prestatarios soberanos. Se trata de una consideración que debe contar poderosamente para los Gobiernos endeudados al presentar para su estudio sus presupuestos a la Comisión Europea.

No son sólo los operadores de bonos los que pueden verse barridos por la euforia irracional (o por su contrario). Los veredictos de las agencias de calificación sobre la calidad de los activos también pueden ser erróneos. Con demasiada frecuencia, los calificadores parecen contentarse con seguir –en lugar de encabezar– el sentimiento. Como el proverbial conductor de autobús con la vista fija en lo que está ocurriendo en su espejo retrovisor y no en mirar lo que tiene delante, demasiados analistas de bonos se centran en los datos económicos históricos como factor determinante principal de sus resultados futuros.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/zIuDo6p/es;
  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now