I bilanci dell'eurozona sotto i riflettori

DUBLINO – I mercati obbligazionari sono notoriamente volubili, essendo spesso guidati più dal sentimento che da una rigorosa analisi macroeconomica e, come la crisi finanziaria globale del 2008 ha dimostrato, lungi dall'essere infallibili. Inoltre, possono essere particolarmente inaffidabili nel valutare le prospettive a lungo termine di un'economia.

Anche se i tassi di interesse in tutta l'Unione europea sono ai minimi storici, il debito pubblico dei paesi dell'eurozona potrebbe vedersi soggetto a pressioni qualora i mercati obbligazionari rivalutassero la rischiosità dei mutuatari sovrani. Una considerazione come questa dovrebbe avere una certa rilevanza per i governi indebitati al momento di sottoporre il proprio bilancio all'esame alla Commissione europea.

Non si tratta solo di bond trader che possono essere influenzati da un moto di esuberanza irrazionale (o dal suo contrario). I verdetti delle agenzie di rating sulla qualità degli attivi possono essere anch'essi imperfetti. Troppo spesso, i valutatori sembrano contenti di farsi trascinare dal sentimento, anziché guidarlo. Come il proverbiale conducente d'autobus che guarda solo nello specchietto retrovisore invece che davanti a sé, troppi analisti finanziari si concentrano su dati economici storici come se fossero l'elemento determinante per la performance futura.

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