tightrope walker Don Emmert | getty images

Peurs sur les marchés mondiaux

CAMBRIDGE – L'extraordinaire volatilité des marchés au cours de l'année dernière tient en grande partie aux risques et aux incertitudes liées en particulier à la croissance chinoise, à la situation des banques européennes et à l'abondance de l'offre pétrolière. Durant les deux premiers mois de cette année, beaucoup d'investisseurs craignaient que même les USA, dont la situation n'est pas si mauvaise en termes de croissance, ne tombent dans la récession. Et 21% des experts qui participent à l'enquête d'opinion mensuelle du Wall Street Journal s'attendent à une récession.

Je ne nie pas les risques. Un coup suffisamment fort porté à la croissance chinoise ou au système financier européen pourrait faire basculer l'économie mondiale d'une croissance faible vers la récession. Une hypothèse encore plus effrayante serait de voir l'année prochaine à la même époque la présidence américaine transformée en une émission de téléréalité.

Du point de vue macroéconomique, les fondamentaux ne sont pas si mauvais. Le taux d'emploi est élevé, la confiance des consommateurs est forte et la part du secteur pétrolier dans le PIB n'est pas suffisante pour mettre l'économie américaine à genoux du fait de la baisse des prix. En réalité on tient insuffisamment compte de la peur d'une autre grande crise dans le comportement  actuel des marchés.

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