tightrope walker Don Emmert | getty images

全球市场中的恐慌因素

坎布里奇—去年波澜壮阔的市场波动在很大程度上要归因于中国增长、欧洲银行和石油过剩等因素的真风险和不确定性。对今年前两个月,许多投资者开始担心,就连全世界最令人放心的增长故事美国也即将陷入衰退。事实上,在《华尔街日报》月度调查做出预测的专家中,有21%认为衰退就在眼前。

我不否认存在风险。如果中国增长或欧洲金融体系受到足够大的打击,全球经济肯定将从慢增长转变为衰退。而更加可怕的观点是,明年今日,美国总统可能沦为一场现实电视秀

但是,从宏观经济角度看,基本面根本没有那么糟。就业数字一直强势,消费信心稳固,石油行业相对GDP的规模还没有大到油价暴跌导致美国经济要“跪”的地步。事实上,目前最不受关注的市场情绪推动因素是另一场大危机。

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