tightrope walker Don Emmert | getty images

全球市场中的恐慌因素

坎布里奇—去年波澜壮阔的市场波动在很大程度上要归因于中国增长、欧洲银行和石油过剩等因素的真风险和不确定性。对今年前两个月,许多投资者开始担心,就连全世界最令人放心的增长故事美国也即将陷入衰退。事实上,在《华尔街日报》月度调查做出预测的专家中,有21%认为衰退就在眼前。

我不否认存在风险。如果中国增长或欧洲金融体系受到足够大的打击,全球经济肯定将从慢增长转变为衰退。而更加可怕的观点是,明年今日,美国总统可能沦为一场现实电视秀

但是,从宏观经济角度看,基本面根本没有那么糟。就业数字一直强势,消费信心稳固,石油行业相对GDP的规模还没有大到油价暴跌导致美国经济要“跪”的地步。事实上,目前最不受关注的市场情绪推动因素是另一场大危机。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/NENOjC8/zh;
  1. China corruption Isaac Lawrence/Getty Images

    The Next Battle in China’s War on Corruption

    • Chinese President Xi Jinping knows well the threat that corruption poses to the authority of the Communist Party of China and the state it controls. 
    • But moving beyond Xi's anti-corruption purge to build robust and lasting anti-graft institutions will not be easy, owing to enduring opportunities for bureaucratic capture.
  2. Italy unemployed demonstration SalvatoreEsposito/Barcroftimages / Barcroft Media via Getty Images

    Putting Europe’s Long-Term Unemployed Back to Work

    Across the European Union, millions of people who are willing and able to work have been unemployed for a year or longer, at great cost to social cohesion and political stability. If the EU is serious about stopping the rise of populism, it will need to do more to ensure that labor markets are working for everyone.

  3. Latin America market Federico Parra/Getty Images

    A Belt and Road for the Americas?

    In a time of global uncertainty, a vision of “made in the Americas” prosperity provides a unifying agenda for the continent. If implemented, the US could reassert its historical leadership among a group of countries that share its fundamental values, as well as an interest in inclusive economic growth and rising living standards.

  4. Startup office Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    How Best to Promote Research and Development

    Clearly, there is something appealing about a start-up-based innovation strategy: it feels democratic, accessible, and so California. But it is definitely not the only way to boost research and development, or even the main way, and it is certainly not the way most major innovations in the US came about during the twentieth century.

  5. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.