Abschied von der neoklassischen Revolution

LONDON – Der sich abzeichnende Konkurs von Lehman Brothers und der erzwungene Verkauf von Merrill Lynch, zwei der größten Namen im Finanzgeschäft, kennzeichnen das Ende einer Ära. Doch was kommt als Nächstes?

Die Zyklen ökonomischer Moden sind so alt wie Geschäftszyklen und werden normalerweise von schwerwiegenden wirtschaftlichen Turbulenzen verursacht. „Linke“ Zyklen werden von „konservativen“ Zyklen gefolgt, die wiederum neuen „linken“ Zyklen weichen und so weiter.

Linke Zyklen sind von staatlichen Interventionen geprägt und konservative Zyklen von einem Rückzug des Staates. Ein langer linker Zyklus erstreckte sich von den 1930er Jahren bis in die 70er Jahre, gefolgt von einem konservativen Zyklus der wirtschaftlichen Deregulierung, der nun zu seinem Ende zu kommen scheint. Mit der Verstaatlichung der beiden großen amerikanischen Hypothekenbanken Fanny Mae und Freddie Mac, die der Verstaatlichung der britischen Northern Rock in diesem Jahr folgte, haben die Regierungen wieder damit begonnen einzuschreiten, um einen Zusammenbruch des Marktes zu verhindern. Die berauschenden Tage der konservativen Wirtschaftslehre sind vorbei – vorerst.

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