وداعاً للثورة الكلاسيكية الجديدة

لندن ـ إن الإفلاس الوشيك لمؤسسة ليهمان برذرز ( Lehman Brothers )، والبيع القسري لشركة ميريل لينش ( Merrill Lynch )، وهما اثنتين من أعظم الأسماء في عالم المال، من العلامات التي تشير إلى نهاية عصر. ولكن ماذا بعد ذلك؟

إن الدورات التي يمر بها النمط الاقتصادي ليست أحدث عهداً من دورات الأعمال التجارية، والتي تنتج عادة عن اضطرابات عميقة في قطاع الأعمال. فالدورات "المتحررة" تتبعها دورات "محافظة"، الأمر الذي يفسح المجال أمام دورات "متحررة" جديدة، وهكذا.

تتسم الدورات المتحررة بالتدخل الحكومي والدورات المحافظة بالتراجع الحكومي. امتدت إحدى الدورات المتحررة الطويلة من ثلاثينيات إلى ثمانينيات القرن العشرين، ثم أعقبتها دورة متحفظة من إلغاء التنظيمات الاقتصادية، والتي يبدو أنها قد بلغت نهايتها الآن. ومع تأميم بنكي الرهن العقاري الأضخم في أميركا، فاني ماي وفريدي ماك، بعد تأميم بنك نورثرن روك البريطاني في وقت سابق من هذا العام، تكون الحكومات قد بدأت في التدخل من جديد لمنع انهيار السوق. ويبدو أن أيام الاقتصاد المحافظ المثيرة قد ولت ـ في الوقت الحالي على الأقل.

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