Woman in water amidst boats

即将到来的石油难民潮

内罗毕—石油财富可能是一个诅咒,这一思想由来已久——也不需要解释了。每隔几十年,能源价格就会一飞冲天,人们争相寻找新的石油资源。接着,供给最终超过需求,价格有从天上落到地下。暴跌越大越突然,社会和地缘政治影响就越大。

上一次石油大崩盘发生在20世纪80年代——并且改变了世界。1980年春,我还是德克萨斯州 油田上的一名年轻工人,我目睹美国基准原油价格上涨到每桶45美元——相当于今天的138美元。到了1988年,石油价格还不到每桶9美元,1986年一年就暴跌了一半价格。

汽油价格大降让司机受益。但是,在其他方面,油价下跌的影响是灾难性的——最为明显的便是苏联,其经济严重依赖石油出口。苏联经济增长率下降到只有20世纪70年代的三分之一。随着苏联的日益疲软,社会动荡开始增加,最终导致1989年柏林墙的倒塌和中东欧共产主义的崩溃。两年后,苏联本身也不复存在。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/6GLQk0N/zh;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now