WEF in Davos Fabrice Coffrini/Getty Images

Le fantasme du gagnant-gagnant de la démocratie libérale

WASHINGTON, DC – Peu d'analystes avaient prévu le vote des Britanniques en faveur de la sortie de l'Union européenne ni le choix des Américains de faire de Donald Trump leur prochain président. Pourtant, il n'a pas fallu longtemps pour qu’émerge une explication consensuelle de ces erreurs de calcul. Néanmoins, quand on parle de ce genre de thèmes complexes qui peuvent avoir de grandes conséquences, il convient de se méfier des raisonnements faciles.

Le consensus actuel accuse les « élites » – dans les milieux universitaires, les médias et les entreprises – de s’être tellement pris au jeu de leur monde relativement cosmopolite et connecté au point de pas avoir pu écouter attentivement les groupes moins instruits et connectés. Parce que ces deux derniers groupes sont précisément ceux qui ont le moins bénéficié de la mondialisation, ils étaient les plus susceptibles de rejeter les institutions supranationales (dans le cas du Brexit) ou les candidats de l’establishment (dans le cas de l’élection de Trump). Les ignorer était, à bien des égards, une erreur évidente.

On peut reconnaitre beaucoup de mérite à ce point de vue. La « pensée de groupe » afflige régulièrement les élites financières et intellectuelles d'aujourd'hui, y compris les sondeurs, qui ont souvent fréquenté les mêmes écoles, travaillent ensemble, lisent les mêmes médias, et se rassemblent dans les mêmes conférences et événements, de Davos à Aspen.

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