中美洲的失败国家

当美国国防部在12月提交一份报告,指责墨西哥是存在迅速沦为失败国家风险的两个国家之一(另外一个是巴基斯坦)时,不难预料这样的结论将在许多地区受到谴责。实际上,这份报告的作者可能分析正确,但只是搞错了国家。更靠近中美洲南部的国家——特别是危地马拉——可能更适合被称为失败国家。

如果考虑到20世纪90年代该地区民主的显著进步,失败国家的评估可能显得有些苛刻。但如果更深层次地审视民主的内在质量,特别是从司法和警察等国家机构的层面,情况似乎就变得不那么乐观。颇具讽刺意味的是,造成局势恶化的正是墨西哥对待本国领土上贩毒卡特尔的强硬政策,贩毒团伙也因此试图把中美防御相对薄弱的国家建成自己的行动基地。

从危地马拉搜集的证据尤其令人忧心。拉美近80%运抵美国的可卡因全部途经该国。阿尔瓦罗·科洛姆总统2月声称2008年有案可查的6,200起谋杀中有40%与毒品暴力有关。美国和危地马拉的调查人员相信锡那罗亚和海湾集团这两个墨西哥最大的贩毒卡特尔正在把魔爪伸向各个部门,海湾卡特尔臭名昭著的武装派别 Los Zetas被指应对去年该国大量的屠杀事件负责。许多经济学家认为近年来克沙尔对美元走强的主要原因是大量的贩毒黑钱通过危地马拉金融系统得以转移。

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