狂热,疯狂和金融

巴塞罗纳-金融危机、信贷紧缩以及随之而来的经济下滑,已经严重损害了金融市场、金融机构以及交易商的信誉。越来越多的人认为,金融市场是以非理性、泡沫、狂热和疯狂为特征的,其中的经济参与者都受到了偏差行为的驱使。

乔治·索罗斯关于信贷危机的近作就是这种思维方式的一个极好的例子;他甚至提出,现在已经确立起来的金融理论都是很陈旧的。实质上,索罗斯的观点意味着,当前的金融危机是金融市场没有有效处理信息的最终证据。如果这是事实,那么,比起弗里德里希·冯·哈耶克(Friedrich von Hayek)的市场是一个处理分散信息的非凡机制的观点来,我们更接近梅纳德·凯恩斯(Maynard Keynes)的市场就是赌场的观点。

例如,最近油价的波动就是由期货市场的非理性狂热所驱动的。金融市场的交易商可能有系统地误判,对他们的信息过于自信,并且对新闻反应过度。但是,我认为,对这些现象有另外一个解释,这一解释是建立在机构和交易商的合理考量和信息处理的基础上的。

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