La segunda era nuclear

NEW HAVEN – Al lanzamiento por Corea del Norte de un misil de largo alcance a mediados de diciembre siguió un torbellino de condenas mundiales que resultó casi cómico por lo previsible que era y por su impotencia, pero dicho lanzamiento subrayaba una realidad mayor que no se puede seguir pasando por alto: el mundo ha entrado en una segunda era nuclear. La bomba atómica ha regresado para un segundo acto, un bis posterior a la Guerra Fría. Para poder gestionar ese panorama más amplio, hay que entenderlo.

Aún están cobrando forma los contornos de la segunda era nuclear, pero los próximos años serán particularmente peligrosos, porque la propia novedad crea peligros, al replantearse las normas y las líneas rojas. En la primera era nuclear, se tardó diez años para ello y esta vez puede no ser diferente.

En Oriente Medio, el Asia meridional y el Asia oriental, las antiguas rivalidades se desarrollan en un marco nuclear, lo que ya ha cambiado las posturas militares en todo Oriente Medio. Se está trasladando al mar parte del arsenal nuclear israelí, con ojivas atómicas en submarinos diésel, para impedir que sean blanco de un ataque por sorpresa. Además, Israel están lanzando una nueva generación de satélites para que den una alerta temprana sobre los preparativos de otros países para lanzar ataques con misiles. Si se dispersaran los misiles móviles del Irán, Israel quiere enterarse de ello inmediatamente.

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