Второй ядерный век

НЬЮ-ХЕЙВЕН – За запуском Северной Кореей ракеты дальнего радиуса действия в середине декабря прошлого года последовал шквал всеобщего осуждения, которое было практически нелепым в своей предсказуемости и бессилии что-нибудь сделать с этим. Однако запуск подчеркнул ставшую еще большей реальность, которую нельзя проигнорировать: мир вступил в свой второй ядерный век. Атомная бомба вернулась на бис во втором акте, уже после окончания холодной войны. Это огромная сцена должна быть проанализирована, если мы хотим ею управлять.

Пока что контуры второго ядерного века все еще формируются. И ближайшие годы будут особенно опасными, поскольку новизна сама по себе создает опасность во время пересмотра правил и границ. В первый ядерный век на это ушло десять лет, и в этот раз все может быть точно так же.

На Ближнем Востоке, в Южной и Восточной Азии старое соперничество теперь развернется в ядерном контексте. Оно уже изменило военную ситуацию на всем Ближнем Востоке. Часть израильского ядерного арсенала в данный момент переводится в море: ядерные боеголовки перемещаются на дизельные подводные лодки, чтобы помешать сделать его мишенью при внезапном нападении. Также Израиль запускает новое поколение спутников для обеспечения раннего предупреждения о подготовке других стран к ракетным атакам. Если мобильные иранские ракеты будут рассредоточены, Израиль хочет знать об этом немедленно.

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