building crane Igor Goloniov/ZumaPress

Eine Geschichte zweier Theorien

PARIS – Das globale Wachstum ist erneut enttäuschend. Vor einem Jahr hat der Internationale Währungsfonds erwartet, dass die globale Wirtschaftsleistung 2015 um 4% zulegen würde. Heute prognostiziert der Fonds für 2015 einen Anstieg um 3,3% – etwa so viel wie 2013 und 2014 und mehr als ein voller Prozentpunkt weniger als durchschnittlich in den Jahren 2000-2007.

In der Eurozone war das Wachstum im letzten Quartal nicht gerade überwältigend. Japan ist erneut in den negativen Bereich gerutscht. Brasilien und Russland befinden sich in einer Rezession. Der Welthandel ist ins Stocken geraten. Und Chinas Konjunkturabkühlung und Marktturbulenzen in diesem Sommer haben zusätzlich für Verunsicherung gesorgt.

Es gibt freilich Lichtblicke: Indien, Spanien und das Vereinigte Königreich übertreffen die Erwartungen. Die Erholung in den Vereinigten Staaten ist solide. Afrika schneidet gut ab. Insgesamt lässt sich dennoch kaum leugnen, dass es der Weltwirtschaft an Schwung fehlt.

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