Exchange rate currency dollar remnibi Yongsan Garrison/Flickr

Pour une réglementation du carry trade

PRINCETON – Durant les premières années de la crise financière mondiale, les taux de change représentaient la partie la moins intéressante du débat macroéconomique. Une proposition française en 2011 pour une réforme en profondeur du régime monétaire international n’est allée nulle part. Aujourd'hui, le sujet est devenu le centre d'une anxiété intense – avec raison.

Les guerres monétaires sont un rappel de la fragilité du processus de mondialisation. Lorsqu’une partie de ce processus commence à apparaître trop douloureuse, le public exige une intervention politique, et c’est tout le système qui risque d’aller à vau l’eau.

Les anticipations d’augmentation des taux d'intérêt aux États-Unis font grimper la valeur du dollar, alors même que l'assouplissement monétaire au Japon et en Europe pousse sur le yen et l'euro à la baisse. Au cours de l’année dernière, l'euro a perdu plus d'un cinquième de sa valeur par rapport au dollar, et il n'y a aucun signe que la tendance va s’inverser de sitôt.

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