John Overmyer

Desórdenes cambiarios

NUEVA YORK – Dos características problemáticas de la recuperación económica en curso son la depresión del comercio internacional y la reaparición temprana de los desbalances mundiales de pagos. Los cálculos del FMI y la ONU indican que el volumen del comercio internacional estará en 2010 entre 7 y 8% por debajo del nivel de 2008, al tiempo que la mayoría de los países, incluyendo ahora los industrializados, buscan mejorar sus balances en cuenta corriente con el exterior.

En realidad, si hemos de creer las proyecciones del FMI, ¡los saldos en cuenta corriente del conjunto del mundo aumentarían casi un billón de dólares entre 2009 y 2012! Esto es obviamente imposible, porque los superávit y déficit de los países deben compensarse entre sí. Las proyecciones del Fondo simplemente reflejan la fuerza recesiva que afecta a la economía mundial, debido a la debilidad de la demanda agregada.

En estas condiciones, un crecimiento liderado por las exportaciones de las principales economías del mundo es una amenaza para la economía mundial. Esto es cierto tanto para China, como para Alemania (como ya se lo ha recordado a sus vecinos la Ministra Lagarde, de Francia), Japón y los Estados Unidos.

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