John Overmyer


NEW YORK – Bei der aktuellen wirtschaftlichen Erholung sind zwei Dinge besorgniserregend: der schleppende Welthandel und die frühe Wiederbelebung der Zahlungsbilanz-Ungleichgewichte. Schätzungen des Internationalen Währungsfonds und der Vereinten Nationen zufolge wird das Außenhandelsvolumen 2010 immer noch 7 bis 8 Prozent unterhalb des Spitzenwerts von 2008 liegen, während viele oder die meisten Länder, einschließlich der Industrienationen, daran arbeiten, ihre Leistungsbilanzen zu beleben.

Wenn wir den Prognosen des IWF glauben können, werden die kumulierten Leistungsbilanzüberschüsse der Weltwirtschaft zwischen 2009 und 2012 um fast 1 Billion steigen! Das ist natürlich unmöglich, da die Überschüsse und Defizite der Weltwirtschaft als ganzes ausgeglichen sein müssen. Es reflektiert lediglich die rezessive (oder deflationäre) Kraft einer schwachen globalen Nachfrage, die über der Weltwirtschaft hängt.

Unter diesen Bedingungen ist das exportorientierte Wachstum der großen Volkswirtschaften eine Bedrohung der Weltwirtschaft. Das betrifft China, Deutschland (worauf die französische Finanzministerin Christine Lagarde nicht müde wird, ihren Nachbarn hinzuweisen), Japan und die Vereinigten Staaten.

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