Good debt scrabble economy

Money for Nothing

BRUSSELS – Die entwickelte Welt scheint sich auf ein langfristiges Null-Zins-Szenariozuzubewegen. Zwar haben die Vereinigten Staaten, das Vereinigte Königreich, Japan und die Eurozone die Zentralbank-Zinssätze bereits seit mehreren Jahren bei Null gehalten, aber man ging doch davon aus, dies sei eine vorübergehende Fehlentwicklung, weswegen die mittel- und langfristigen Zinssätze substantiell blieben. Aber das ändert sich womöglich gerade, besonders in der Eurozone.

Streng genommen werden die Nullsätze nur für nominale, mittelfristige Schulden angesetzt, die als risikolos gelten. Aber in der gesamten Eurozone liegen die Zinssätze bei annähernd Null - bzw. bei einem erheblichen Teil der Staatsschulden sogar im negativen Bereich - und es ist davon auszugehen, dass dies für einige Zeit so bleiben wird.

In Deutschland zum Beispiel werden die Zinsen für öffentliche Schulden mit einer Laufzeit von bis zu fünf Jahren negativ und darüber hinaus nur geringfügig positiv sein, so dass sie im Mittel bei Null liegen werden. Das Nullzins-Szenario ist ganz klar nicht nur auf Japan beschränkt.

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