欧元区需要的不仅是量化宽松

发自剑桥——尽管欧洲央行推出了比预期中更大规模的量化宽松计划,但即便是其支持者们也会担忧该计划可能不足以提振实际收入,降低失业率以及降低政府债务相对GDP的比率。而这些担心都是有道理的。

不过首先有一个好消息:量化宽松的预期已经加速了欧元国际币值的下跌。而弱势欧元将刺激欧元区国家的出口——其中约一半会输往区域外市场——从而提高欧元区的GDP。欧元的贬值也将提高进口价格和通货膨胀,带领欧元区进一步远离通缩。

但不幸的是,这可能还不够。当年量化宽松在美国成功时的初始条件与我们眼下的欧洲差异极大。事实上,虽然欧元区国家假设欧洲央行的债券购买行为可以解决自身问题,但也不应因此放松改革努力。即便这些国家或许无法克服政治障碍,无法推行可以提高生产力和竞争力的劳动力市场和产品市场结构改革,它们也可以制定可以提升总需求的政策。

当然,主要欧元区国家的巨额国债导致无法使用传统的凯恩斯主义政策——增加支出或减税——去借助提高预算赤字增加需求。但欧元区各国政府可以通过在不减少净收入或增加财政赤字的情况下刺激私人消费的方式来改变税收结构

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