g20 summit Chris McGrath | getty images

Prepararse para la próxima recesión en Europa

PARÍS – Si usted no entiende lo que está pasando con la economía de la eurozona, no es el único. Un día nos dicen que el crecimiento está definitivamente fuera de moda; al otro, que la recuperación ya está en marcha; y al tercero, que el Banco Central Europeo está analizando enviar un cheque a cada ciudadano para estimular la producción y recrear inflación. Pocas veces el panorama económico ha sido tan confuso.

Comencemos con las previsiones de crecimiento a mediano plazo. Desde el estallido de la crisis financiera global en 2008, el crecimiento de la productividad ha ido a paso de tortuga. Extrañamente, el mágico poder de cómputo de los teléfonos inteligentes no parece compensar la desaceleración de los aumentos de eficiencia en la industria fabril y los servicios estándar. Por casi una década, el crecimiento anual de la productividad en las economías avanzadas fue cercano al 1%, contra el 2% de antes.

Puede ser una caída temporal o una ilusión estadística. Pero a falta de pruebas de que vaya a terminar, las autoridades decidieron revisar sus pronósticos a la baja. Después de 2010, la Oficina de Presupuesto del Congreso de los Estados Unidos rebajó de 25% a 16% su previsión del crecimiento de la productividad en la década que termina en 2020; lo mismo hizo la Oficina de Responsabilidad Presupuestaria del Reino Unido, que redujo su pronóstico de 22% a 14%. Todos se están preparando para tiempos malos.

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